Today In Real Estate

Last week, two important questions were finally resolved: we have a new mayor-elect in New York and the longest federal government shutdown in history has ended. Looking back at October, when these uncertainties remained, NYC real estate remained resilient. In Manhattan, signed contracts were up, and in Brooklyn there was finally a solid rise in inventory -- although it didn't last long, with pent-up demand leading to almost immediate absorption of new listings.

As for what to expect going forward, the Fall market is always harder to predict. Some years the market slows down in November and remains dormant until the new year. Other years, particularly in election years, November can mark the start of increased activity as uncertainty dissipates and the market gets a boost. In the last week, with the government shutdown resolved and the mayoral election decided, for better or for worse, there is acceptance and some semblance of certainty. If the first weekend in November is any indication -- where open house traffic jumped 25% -- we have cause to be hopeful for a solid 4th quarter.

Stay tuned for our November recap next month, and in the meantime we hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving with friends and family!

Manhattan Snapshot

Manhattan inventory declined in October, as a slowdown in new listings toward the end of the month kept overall supply lower than it might have been. While official figures showed fewer active listings, there was a noticeable rise in private exclusives and “participant-only” offerings as many sellers opted for soft launches ahead of the election. Despite these supply constraints and broader political and economic headwinds, lower interest rates helped draw more buyers into the market and drove a clear increase in signed contracts.

A decline in new development closings, which typically account for the highest sale and price-per-square-foot figures and represent a significant share of overall activity, pushed down both sale prices and the number of closings. However, when looking only at resales, median prices showed a modest year-over-year increase of 1.5% compared to last October.

On the ground, open house activity in Manhattan fluctuated through October, but averaged above September levels, suggesting modest improvement in Fall buyer activity. The East Side (Gramercy Park, the East Village, and the Upper East Side) led engagement. Traffic surged the first weekend in November, hinting at continued buyer engagement and momentum for November.

Brooklyn Snapshot

Contrary to what we've come to expect, Brooklyn inventory saw a year-over-year uptick this October, driven by gains in both resale and new development listings. Also unusual for Brooklyn (and in contrast to Manhattan trends), contract activity declined, largely due to the significant inventory squeeze in September. While both resale and new development contracts fell, resale activity only edged down, whereas new development contracts were 28% lower than last year.

No matter, Brooklyn sale prices continued to climb, hitting the highest October figure in its history, although down slightly from August and September, which represented the highest median sale prices ever seen in Brooklyn. As expected given the dismal inventory levels we saw in Summer and early Fall, closings were down across the board, in both resales and new development.

On the ground, we’ve seen competitive bidding wars across the most in-demand neighborhoods, though these have been for conservatively priced properties. Aggressive pricing remains a liability, prompting some agents to price lower than we'd expect, perhaps artificially to spur a bidding war and avoid stalling on the market. Brooklyn open house traffic followed a similar trend to Manhattan — softening mid-October before ending on a more encouraging note, and monthly figures were up from September, showing higher buyer engagement heading into Q4. Brooklyn Heights, Fort Greene, and Park Slope saw the strongest open house activity throughout the month.

Mortgage Rate Update

In October, mortgage rates were about 0.75% lower than at the beginning of 2025, making a $1M 30-year mortgage roughly $500 per month more affordable. The Federal Reserve met at the end of October. As widely anticipated, they lowered the Federal Funds Rate by .25%. Mortgage banks have been anticipating this move for months, and this was already reflected in the lower rates we'd seen since August, so there was no impact on rates based on the cut. However, Chairman Powell's comment that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion… far from it” did cause rates to tick-up, since many had been treating that as a foregone conclusion. A December cut still seems likely, though rates in early November have remained higher than the month before.

RATE DATA BASED ON BASED ON CITIBANK'S 30-YEAR FIXED-RATE FOR NON-CONFORMING LOANS, COURTESY OF ZACK TOLMIE, SR. LOAN OFFICER.

Real Estate News

From July 2024 to July 2025, roughly one-third of Manhattan condo owners sold at a loss, with those who bought between 2016 and 2020 hit hardest. Average prices per square foot are down about 4% since 2016, influenced by tax policy changes, migration to lower-tax states, and a strong stock market drawing capital away from real estate. (The Real Deal)

With Zohran Mamdani elected as New York City’s next mayor, housing affordability is expected to be a major focus. His platform calls for a rent freeze on stabilized units and 200,000 new rent-stabilized homes over the next decade, though implementation will depend on the Rent Guidelines Board, zoning coordination, and state collaboration.

(TIME)

Despite the election which many thought could lead to a wealth-exodus, Manhattan’s luxury sector remains strong. In the five days following Mamdani’s win, 41 contracts were signed on homes asking $4M and above — one of the busiest weeks since May. Limited inventory, steady demand, and favorable rates for qualified buyers continue to support activity at the high end.

(Crain’s New York Business)

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