THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Welcome to my weekly newsletter featuring a personal note on the ever-evolving world of real estate along with a few newsworthy updates. Enjoy!

THE LOWDOWN ON THE SHUTDOWN

The LENGTH of the government shutdown will drive almost everything about its impact.  A week will have a very different impact than an extended period of weeks or even months.

The shutdown will primarily affect loans backed by federal agencies like the USDA and, to a lesser extent, the FHA. Conventional loans are mostly unaffected. But a prolonged shutdown could create economic uncertainty that affects interest rates, the broader housing market and GDP growth generally.

More specific to the DC Market, Urban Turf looked at what happened to the DC-area housing market when the federal government shut down for 35 days in early 2019. The impact on our housing market was immediate and measurable. As thousands of federal workers and contractors faced furloughs or missed paychecks, buyer confidence took a hit and home sales stalled. 

Closed sales fell by 7.7 percent in the region and 6.2 percent in DC proper. Pending sales fell by 10 percent in DC proper. Activity rebounded once the shutdown ended, proof that Buyers hadn't disappeared, but rather had hit the pause button.

It will be several weeks before we know the effect of this shutdown on the market. Thankfully this October also offers opportunity. For clients whose finances are not directly impacted by the federal government shutdown, October offers:

• More homes to choose from = Better selection.

• Less competition = More negotiating power.

• Extra time to shop and compare = Less rushed decision-making.

• Sellers more motivated to secure a deal = Sellers may be more flexible on price, terms and contingencies.

With six closings already scheduled this month for our team, we're grateful to those Buyers and Sellers who entrust us to navigate the real estate market through all market conditions.

real estate & the news

• Miami’s luxury condo market had another hot month in August, continuing a trend that finds fancy homes attracting big spenders. The number of sales transactions of $5 million-and-up units jumping nearly 12% over last year — the median price of affordable older condos, considered 30 years and up, also remains strong. (Miami Association of Realtors)

•  Across the developed world, adults aged 16 and older spent an average of 2 hours and 20 minutes per day on social platforms at the end of 2024.... down by almost 10% since 2022. The decline is most pronounced among the erstwhile heaviest users — teens and 20-somethings. (FT)

• Wealth taxes are 500+ years old and hardly ever work. The French government used to tax homeowners based on the number of windows. So owners would brick up windows to lessen the window count....and pay lower taxes... These days there is Dubai and Monaco. The primary problem with a wealth tax is that it's very hard to implement. It gives high earners an incentive to move somewhere with lower taxes and/or put their wealth in hard-to-value assets, such as art or private equity. (Bloomberg)

around dc

GARDNER'S FOCUS TOUR

PLANTS OF FALL AT HILLWOOD MUSEUM

Jessica Bonilla, director of horticulture, highlights her favorite fall features and first-hand stories of practical gardening lessons.

Tickets are distributed at the Ellen MacNeille Charles Visitor Center upon opening each day. This forty-five-minute tour is limited to twenty and meets in the visitor center conservatory. Further details and ticket information available here.

Lee Arrowood

Principal, Arrowood Advisory at Compass

M: 202.251.3175

O: 202.448.9002

lee.arrowood@compass.com

+$173M Sold In 2023

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