We are in a "Beauty Contest" market. High-intent buyers are focusing their purchasing power on the best possible version of a home. With every Seller in this market, we are undertaking at least a week or two of market prep - addressing everything from needed paint updates to upgraded lighting and home styling.
Market data in our region reveals a stark contrast in performance based on property type. The market is rewarding "finished" products while punishing "project" homes and small-unit condos.
Hottest Segment: Single Family Homes (SFH) in close-in suburbs and Upper NW DC. Buyers are specifically targeting homes that require zero post-closing work. We have seen this play out with homes priced everywhere from $1M condos to $6M+ single family homes.
Inventory Sentiment: Buyers are increasingly vocal about "average homes" being priced too high, leading to a "wait and see" approach for anything that isn't exceptional.
Early March housing data nationally shows home sales are climbing. Can the market survive global turmoil?
Pending home sales came in 4.1% above the same week last year. The four-week average is running about 3% higher than 2025, and year-to-date we've counted 650,000 sales contracts versus 633,000 a year ago. This week posted more new pending sales than the same week in 2025, 2024, or 2023.
But new listings are actually running below last year. This week we counted 62,000 newly listed single-family homes versus 64,000 a year ago. More sales, fewer sellers. That combination suggests that inventory is unlikely to grow meaningfully this year — and that potential sellers may not realize buyers are already active in the market. When rates fall, demand tends to move faster than supply.
As a result, total inventory dipped for the second straight week to just under 687,000 single family homes, up only 6.9% from a year ago. Compare that to 30% inventory growth at this time last year. That gap is closing fast, and by summer inventory could actually be below 2025 levels.
Then there are the new variables. The jobs market is weakening (at least according to current data, which seems to get revised with each jobs reports). Unemployment is still low, but hiring is slow and the economy is losing jobs. Weak hiring dampens one of the biggest drivers of home sales: relocation. Spiking oil prices are pushing inflation fears and moving rates higher, not lower. At least this week. The sales growth is real. It's also fragile.
Perhaps the clearest signal this week is a reminder that no one can time the market. Life ultimately drives the decision to buy or sell. Our best move is to focus on what we can control. Enter the beauty contest.
