MARKET UPDATE

Q3 Recap | September 2025

Peek from the Streets:

We’re in a bit of purgatory moment. I've never been busier but there is a feeling of waiting, patience, and contemplating. Not frozen, but not frenzied. Buyers, sellers, agents, everyone is watching rates, inventory, and what comes next. The aftershocks from past hikes are still here, but things are starting to loosen. You can feel it. I call it "cautious readiness".

• Prices are steady

  NYC is up approx. 3.1% YOY.

• Inventory still tight

  New listings are trickling in, but not enough to shift the market. Still very much a supply-constrained environment.

• Condos vs. co-ops

  Condos still lead on price and prestige. Co-ops are drawing buyers back in with better value and in some cases, more negotiability.

  
  

• Uptown Value

  Want a deal? Consider a move uptown, but prepare for work.

• Rates

  Even minor drops will enhance buying power and unlock new activity. The closer we get to 6% on the 30Y the more active we'll be. This is the number to watch. Current 30Y Fixed is 6.38%. (Ask me about my client securing a 4.875% 7Y ARM.)

  
  

• Hyper-specific matters

  The block, building, exposures, line, walkability, proximity to trains...it all matters when pricing your listing.

THE BIG (Cotswolds) SIT

Estelle Manor | Oxfordshire, UK aka "The Cotswolds"

A former hunting pad, turned into a proper estate hotel and country club by Hotelier Sharan Pasricha of Hoxton fame.

THE SCENE

You turn off the main road, an epic approach, and the shift is immediate…gravel crunching under tires (my favorite sound), trees in formation like the King's Guard, and the sense that everything’s been considered. Sixty acres of estate with 3,000 more acres surrounding it.

The manor is a refined monstrosity. You see and feel the age but it's been modernized by someone who knows. For real. I must meet them!

Interiors are rich without being showy, the drapes, ceilings, lighting, all dialed in. Eccentric meets discerning taste.

Art’s everywhere, every nook has a moment, nothing staged, just full throttle. I immediately second guess every design decision I've ever made...scrap it all.

So many gathering spaces/big sits to enjoy: some are built for a scene, others for silence: a newspaper, fireside cappuccino. I worked, I had a martini and burger, I might have had a 10AM Champagne which may or may not have had the the bartender comparing me to James Bond.

Outside, the vibe continues, the pool, terrace, meadow, greenhouse, garden, all of it designed to be roamed at your leisure. Slowly. Quietly (also my fav). There is no yelling here.

I muttered to my partner, "This is the best hotel/manor I've ever stayed at."

THE ROOM

Big. Cozy. Homey. Country Chic. Upholstered headboards, deep tubs, soft light. Not minimalist, but not maximalist. Michaelist :)

THE FOOD

Multiple restaurants, none of them stuffy. Brasserie for everyday ease, proper English breakfasts, casual dinners. Baby's first BEEF WELLINGTON! The terrace jumps when the sun's out. For a flavor switch up, the Billiards Room: dim sum, roasted meats, deep green carpets, gold trim, and a bit of swagger. And my standout: the Armoury, a Japanese sensory explosion. This room deserves all the flowers.

THE VIBE

Estelle Manor is a vibe. My new vibe. High design, uber discerning but not asshole-y. Staff know when to appear and disappear, as if on cue.

WHAT'S PLAYING

WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT?

• Hit their new Roman bathhouse, Eynsham Baths. The best post-pub, cleanse-the-Guinness kinda morning.

• Lounge poolside with a Vesper in hand.

• Take a walk, hit the archery tent, bike, off-roading, falconry, have a proper roast, watch the F1 race in the meadow while the sheep stroll through…you can do it all.

• Visit the birthplace of Winston Churchill, at Blenheim Palace.

• Visit my favorite pub in the Cotswolds, The Bull, in Charlbury.

• Go antiquing at the various villages...we came back with art, vintage denim, and more chairs.