" What goes around, comes back around,

hey, (my baby)"

🎶🎵🎶🎶🎶

What's old is new again.

Trees don't grow to the sky.

What goes up, must come down.

I've been reading a lot about market cycles of late; dedicating more time, "white-space" I call it, to absorb and analyze market data points, performance metrics, and the psychology of the investor/consumer in an effort to ascertain where we are, at present, in an overall market cycle. The thought being, if we know today's standing, if we understand the risks today, because no one can predict the future (if you can, I hope you won the Powerball & please call me), we can make intelligent value-based investments. We can buy low and sell high - everyone's dream!

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

attributed to Mark Twain

Learning from cyclical history within my lifetime: the dot-com bubble/burst and the housing boom of early oughts to the great recession, frothy markets are easy to see in hindsight. Players took on the riskiest of bets - buying any stock with a ".com" in the name or lending to anyone who simply said they made enough money to cover a mortgage payment (stated income loans). It was vicious. Everyone wanted to make the money they heard others were making, so everyone jumped in the water, without knowing how to swim. Of course they all drown! Booms are usually slow, happening over time. Busts are quick. To quote the old adage, "Blowing up the balloon is slow, but the air comes out fast".

We started the decade with sales figures and home prices rising precipitously on the foundations of cheap money, overwhelming demand, limited supply, some greed, envy and a healthy level of FOMO. Again, we all wanted "in" and those of us who didn't get in early, chased markets higher, later. It happens in the stock market everyday! Think meme stocks. It was all happening so quickly - multiple offers and overbidding. Looking back, I think we can all agree "trees don't grow to the sky"- being late to the party was risky - market's had to recalibrate.

Cities like Austin, Denver, Tampa saw some of the largest price decreases this summer. Nashville is correcting as well, although apparently with more stability according to the data. New listings in Davidson and Williamson counties were up 2% and 5% from the previous month in a sign that may be we're hitting the peak of new inventory. And with cautionary promise, the number of homes sold in August remained flat month over month and increased 12% and 16% versus this time last year for Davidson and Williamson counties, respectively. Some signs of stability. Is this stronger footing from which to experience further growth or are our aforementioned sister cities a forewarning of what's yet to come?

Risk aversion is high. Money is available to credit worthy borrowers at historically average rates. The contrarian investor in me says, "look now," because no one else is...

Would love to hear your thoughts. Let's chat!

❤️

Cheers,

Shane

* Shelby park puttin' on a show!

** The boys-in-blue at the W-hotel pool (we didn't get wardrobe theme memo)

*** Watching our buddy, Ben Brooks play at new bar, the Amsterdamian in East while sipping on a classic negroni. Life is good.

Development Spotlight

FOCUS DESIGN BUILD

The MONROE

Twenty-nine homes will sit on the centrally located, gently rolling topography formerly home to Monroe Harding, the 128+ year old orphanage turned Children’s House in Green Hills. I recently spent an afternoon with Lindsay Argo of Focus Builders – a custom and spec home developer in Nashville she and husband, Seth established 10+ years ago – who, along with Barlow Builders and Hidden Valley Homes have been tasked to masterfully repurpose twenty-two serene acres into a community worthy of its namesake. Sitting in a kitchen of distinction, with warm Southern hospitality, Argo is deliberate as she explains their process from ideation through execution.  When creating an everlasting contribution to our burgeoning Nashville community she and Seth apply their cooperative experience, education, and personal life experiences toward each project.

Full article & more information here.  

If you, or anyone you know may be interested, please send them my way for more information.

Please contact me for more information.

Listed by our friends, Lindsay Argo

The Focus Group of TN, LLC.

Local Events

ALL MONTH LONG

Nashville SC

- Philadelphia

- Houston

- Orlando & Cincinnati (away)

Mexico National Football v Korea Republic (Sept 9th)

GEODIS PARK

ALL MONTH LONG

Nashville Sounds

- Sounds vs. Gwinnett

- Norfolk & Louisville (away)

First Horizon Park

ALL MONTH LONG!

FOOTBALL IS BACK!

- LA Rams vs Titans

- Indianapolis Colts vs Titans

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

- North Dakota State vs. Tn State

- Alabama A&M vs. Tn State

- Tennessee Tech vs. Tn State

Nissan Stadium

September 1st | 7:30pm

Louis C.K.

RIDICULOUS

Ryman Auditorium

September 6th &7th | 9-5pm

2025 Middle TN HIGHLAND GAMES

The annual Middle Tennessee Highland Games & Celtic Festival returns bringing together families every year to learn, appreciate, preserve, and celebrate Scottish and Celtic traditions for charitable, educational, social, and athletic purposes.

Sanders Ferry Park - Hendersonville

September 6th | 7:30pm

NINE INCH NAILS

PEEL IT BACK TOUR 2025 with BOYS NOIZE

Bridgestone Arena

September 8th | 7:30pm

ERIC CLAPTON

with special guest, THE WALLFLOWERS

Bridgestone Arena

September 8th | 7:30pm

KENNY G.

Ryman Auditorium

September 9th | 8pm

DWIGHT YOAKAM

Ascend Amphitheater

September 9-13th |

AMERICANA FEST

MULTIPLE LOCATIONS

September 10th | 8pm

GARBAGE

with STARCRAWLER

The Pinnacle

September 12th | 9:30pm

CARRIE UNDERWOOD

with TYLER BRADEN

Grand Oel Opry

September 12th | 9:30pm

JAMES TAYLOR

AND HIS ALL-STAR BAND

First Bank Amphitheater, Franklin

September 13th -October 30th

CHEEKWOOD HARVEST

Cheekwood

September 16th | 7:30pm

NELLY w/ Ja RULE

Ascend Amphitheater

September 18th | 7:30pm

KACEY MUSGRAVES &

PAUL STAMETS

The Magic of Mushrooms

Ryman Auditorium

September 18-24th

NASHVILLE FILM FESTIVAL

With Nicole Kidman

Multiple Locations

September 18th | 7:45pm

ROCK THE CRADLE

with TIM MCGRAW

the Ascension Saint Thomas Foundation collaborated with music industry veterans Connie Bradley and Troy Tomlinson to launch Rock the Cradle to set the stage for raising crucial financial support for Middle Tennessee newborns and mothers by harnessing the power of Nashville’s country music community.

The Pinnacle

September 20th | 7pm

LORDE

Ultrasound / with The Japanese House and Chanel Beads

The Pinnacle

September 25th | 8pm

MAREN MORRIS

The Dreamsicle Tour

The Pinnacle

September 30th | 8pm

HAIM

I QUIT TOUR 2025

The Pinnacle

Notable in Nashville

In case you missed it

LOCAL: 

* Laborup, an AI startup aimed at addressing labor shortages in American manufacturing, announced $7.74 million of funding on Aug. 28. Laborup landed the investor backing as its founder and CEO Simba Jonga was finalizing the company's headquarters move to Nashville. [NBJ]

* In order to clean up the site, the new East Bank scrapyard owners will likely negotiate a brownfield agreement with the state. There are two phases of environmental assessments required by the state, which can take anywhere six to eight months, according to David Jackson. The cleanup of the scrapyard could get costly, but the new owners might not have to pay for it all. “The city is going to be a big partner here because they want this to not be a heavy industrial use. Becoming a brownfield site unlocks the ability for tax incentives, grants and other kinds of financing from federal, state, local programming,” Deems said. “In many ways, it's the only way you can make some of these deals pencil.” There’s still a long road to new development after the cleanup. [NBJ]

* London-based Dexory is looking at expanding its Nashville presence. The logistics robotics and data intelligence company is currently in negotiations to obtain a warehouse in West Nashville so it can scale operations in its U.S. headquarters faster, Founder and CEO Andrei Danescu told the Business Journal. [NBJ]

* Borchetta and Lower Broadway veterans Jon and Joe Field paid $29 million for downtown’s Philips Plaza, according to a newly filed deed. The price was $12 million more than what the tower last sold for eight months ago, but $82 million less than what it sold for six years ago. [NBJ]

* Nearly 16 acres of East Bank property owned by Nashville-based CA South is listed for sale, according to CBRE marketing materials.The listing encompasses 15.55 acres of East Bank property situated on Davidson Street along the Cumberland River. CA South, led by Meg Epstein, paid a collective $38.98 million for the properties in separate transactions in 2021 and 2022, according to Metro records. The site consists of four separate parcels with addresses of 690, 1106, 1130 and 1400 Davidson St.

The guidance pricing for the site is $5 million per acre, according to Fort, which would make the guidance price equivalent to around $77.5 million for the entire property. The local development firm was planning a mixed-use development on the site which could have involved a mix of hotel, office, retail and restaurants. CA South submitted a specific plan for the project to the Metro Planning Department in 2023 and had enlisted Gresham Smith as the project’s architect. [NBJ]

* Verna Café & Bar, will fully open on Sept. 5. serving Japanese-Cajun comfort. [NBJ]

* Sam Fox will drop his second Franklin restaurant later this year. 

The acclaimed restaurateur will open live music venue and comfort food restaurant Culinary Dropout on Sept. 10 at 4020 Aspen Grove Dr [NBJ ]

* Basket Case Café & Grocer will open at 1801 5th Ave. N. in late fall, next to the yet-to-open cocktail bar Cultivar and across the street from Grillshack Fries and Burgers. [NBJ]

* Calypso Cafe is reopening its West Nashville location in phases.

The beloved health-conscious restaurant has opened the Sylvan Park location, at 3307 Charlotte Ave., for UberEats and DoorDash delivery, according to a media alert.

* Naked Farmer will open in Prima at Paseo South Gulch.

NATIONAL:

* The WSJ reported that "US companies have announced over $983 billion worth of stock buybacks so far in 2025, the best start to a year on record in data going back to 1982." The report further detailed that if the current trend continued, we'd see more than $1.1 trillion worth of stock bought back overall in 2025, an all-time high.

* A new Hyundai factory in Savannah, Ga. deploys 750 robots, not counting the hundreds of autonomous guided vehicles that glide across the floor. About 1,450 people work alongside them. That roughly 2-to-1 ratio of humans to robots compares with the U.S. auto-industry average of 7-to-1. [WSJ]

* The federal court for the Northern District of New York upheld New York state’s “gas ban” legislation, the first statewide law that restricts natural gas use in new buildings, effectively banning gas stoves and other fossil fuel appliances in most new construction starting in 2026. 

* According to the Federal Reserve, the silent generation and baby boomers own nearly $25 trillion in real estate combined which will be passed down to younger generations over the next 20 years or so.....and lots of it will bypass capital gains taxes due to the step-up basis of our tax code. ie:  A home that was bought for $200k, worth $2 million today would incur capital gains taxes of over $250k if sold while both owners are alive....once passed onto heirs, that heir can sell the property with a cost basis of $2 million and not incur any capital gains taxes..... which may explain why many more Americans are aging in place.  75% of adults aged 50 and older would prefer to stay in their homes as they age

* Gifting kids to buy a home has been around for decades: Under the tax code, in 2025, an individual can gift up to $19,000 (the limit for married couples is $38,000) without having to pay any taxes. If parents spend more, they’ll have to file a gift tax return and the amount will count toward their lifetime estate tax exemption, which in 2025 is $13.99 million for individuals, $27.98 million for couples. (NY TIMES)

* The second of three estimates for Q2 GDP data was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis yesterday, showing that the US gross domestic product increased by 3.3% on an annual basis during that time. That’s higher than the 3% estimate released last month, and the data will be revised one more time before it’s finalized. Growth is good, but it complicates the Federal Reserve’s job of making an interest rate decision in a couple of weeks. If the economy is trending up and to the right, it has less reason to cut interest rates

* Intel has received $5.7 billion from the ownership deal struck with President Trump. The White House says the Commerce Department is still ironing out details of the agreement

* Walgreens was taken over by PE firm Sycamore Partners, and its shares will no longer trade on the Nasdaq.

* When Los Angeles passed its so-called “mansion tax” in 2022, proponents touted revenue projections of between $600 million to $1.1 billion a year. The tax, imposed on real estate sales over $5 million, has only raised $785 million after more than 2 years, or around half of what was promised/budgeted. (Los Angeles Housing Department)

* Mortgage rates have edged down, with the average 30-year fixed rate at a 10-month low of 6.56%. (WSJ)

* The federal government will shut down at the end of September if Congress doesn’t pass a short-term spending measure.

* New Zealand will allow holders of so-called golden visas to buy houses worth at least $3 million, carving out an exemption to restrictions that have largely kept overseas buyers out of the market since 2018. Almost 10,000 Americans have moved to New Zealand in the past few years. (Bloomberg)

* JSX (JetSuiteX) coming to Truckee! Plan is for once a day, four days a week, service to Bay Area and LA Basin on its 30-passenger jet. 

If you're in the market or know someone who would benefit from an informal conversation with me, please click here and we'll schedule some time together.

REMEMBER,

I have established relationships nationwide, likely in in your local markets, with agent colleagues of mine. Utilize the trust I've established with these high performing men & women to foster smooth dealings on your next transaction.

See the map below for our broad reaching locations. Thank you!

Shane McCarty

Affiliate Broker

M: 209.601.1957

O: 615.475.5616

shane.mccarty@compass.com