The spring housing market is here, and the data is already telling us a lot about what 2026 will look like.
There are 904,000 homes on the market nationally — 697,000 single family and 207,000 condos. That's only 5.7% more than a year ago. We've gone from a market where inventory was growing 30% year over year to one that may actually go negative compared to last year. Six months of falling mortgage rates have steadily compressed supply growth.
The rule of thumb worth knowing: when rates move, demand moves faster than supply. Rates fall, inventory falls. Rates rise, inventory rises. We saw it clearly in 2020 when rates plunged and inventory followed. We saw the opposite in 2022. Home buyers waiting for lower rates and more selection are unlikely to get both at the same time.
This week mortgage rates jumped to 6.4% — the highest of the year — driven by inflation fears tied to the new war and rising oil prices. That's the highest level we've seen in 2026, though still within our expected range for the year. Rates remain meaningfully lower than a year ago, and pending sales reflect that. Weekly contracts are running nearly 4% ahead of last year, continuing a trend we've seen most weeks this year.
The bigger risk is whether global turmoil pushes rates sustainably higher. If that happens, the gradual recovery we've seen in transaction volume would be at risk. Prices, meanwhile, remain under pressure in most markets — not collapsing, but with little upward momentum. There is some bargain hunting happening for the first time in years.
For buyers and sellers heading into spring: conditions are better than last year, but fragile. The data this month will tell us a great deal about how the full year plays out.
