July 2025 Market Report Newsletter

July 2025 Market Report Newsletter ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏

Summer 2025 Market Update: A Tale of Two Markets

Happy Summer! As we head into July, the real estate market is feeling the usual seasonal slowdown. Many folks are off on vacation, and with interest rates still high, we’re seeing a noticeable pause in activity.

Nationally, the housing market remains sluggish. As Redfin’s Chen Zhao put it, “You can see it simply through the very low level of home sales.” In fact, existing home sales are hovering around four million annually—a level we haven’t seen since the 1990s.

Closer to Home in Marin County

The story here is nuanced. We’re seeing two distinct markets emerge:

The Luxury Market is still drawing interest—especially for homes that offer privacy, acreage, great design, and that elusive "wow" factor. Properties in core luxury areas like Ross, Belvedere, Mill Valley, Kentfield, and Tiburon continue to perform well. Buyers are willing to pay a premium for move-in-ready homes with beautiful finishes, walkability, indoor-outdoor flow, land and views.

Value-Driven Buyers are still active, but much more selective. Today’s buyer is focused on quality and lifestyle, not just square footage. They’re looking for smart live-able layouts, updated features, and level outdoor space that connects seamlessly with main living areas.

Inventory & Mortgage Trends

Inventory levels across Marin are varied. Some towns have less than a one-month supply, while countywide we’re around 3.5 months. That’s still considered tight, and well-priced, well-prepared homes are selling quickly.

However, high mortgage rates are making affordability a real challenge. For example, a $2M home with 20% down means a monthly mortgage payment of nearly $11,500—and that’s before taxes and insurance. This has led to reduced urgency from buyers and a noticeable rise in rental demand.

We’re also seeing more homes linger on the market. That said, the homes that are priced right, staged well, and located in desirable areas are still moving—often quickly.

Off-Market Moves & Ultra-Luxury Trends

Private sales are playing a bigger role at the top end of the market. Many of Marin’s highest sales this year have closed without ever hitting the MLS. This reflects both limited inventory and a shift toward private, off-market activity among discerning buyers and sellers.

As for the ultra-luxury tier (homes priced at $10M+), we’re seeing limited movement. Currently, there are 26 homes listed above $10M in Marin—but none are under contract.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling—or just curious about what’s happening in your neighborhood—I’m always here to help or answer any questions.

In Q2, economic volatility and stable mortgage rates led to a weaker spring selling season across the Bay Area, with slower overall demand. However, high-end homes ($4M+) saw strong activity, nearly doubling sales from Q1.

By early July, improving economic indicators and anticipation of declining interest rates, suggest a possible market rebound in the second half of the year.

For sellers, accurate pricing and marketing remain crucial.

Buyers should watch for new listings, price drops, and be ready to act quickly to seize opportunities.

Your vision will become clear only when you can look into your own heart. Who looks outside, dreams; who looks inside, awakes.

— Carl Gustav Jung

Don’t miss out on the excitement!

Say “oui, oui” to more French fun over at the Marin Civic Center for the monthly antique fair.

Hot Air Balloon Classic

Rise and shine, then rise again, for Sonoma County’s yearly hot air balloon classic. The day begins early with a 4 a.m. morning glow show, then continues through the morning with balloon rides, food trucks and fun.

Marin Century Bike Race

The Marin Cyclists Club is a community of passionate riders who explore roads, gravel, and the occasional dirt trail together. Offering rides for all skill levels—from casual weekend cruises to intense hill climbs—they also host training sessions, skills clinics, and social events throughout the year.

Everyone is invited to experience the magic of Outside Lands—San Francisco’s premier music, food, and arts festival. From world-class performances to local culinary favorites, this iconic event offers something for everyone to enjoy.

Fjord is a FLOATING SAUNA and PLUNGE experience on the SAN FRANCISCO BAY It’s an escape from climate controlled comfort zones and uninspired routines. It's a new way to start your day. End your week. Charge up. Wind down. Meet a friend. Take that moment alone. Socialize or sit in silence. We believe heat is the best medicine. That if it's physical, it's therapy. And that California's dazzling landscape should be more than just seen—it should be FELT.

Expert Landscaping Tips for Fire Smart Yard

Tips to Prevent Wildfire

Marin is ready with aerial support, fire lookouts and cameras, and boots on the ground — but true wildfire resilience starts at home. This month, we’re focusing on kickstarting our readiness. Do you know what to look for in a contractor? Have you incorporated non-combustible mulch into your landscape?

35 Bernard St, Mill Valley

Offered at $3,695,000

Remodeled 5-bed, 3.5-bath home in downtown Mill Valley with a chef’s kitchen, media room, Tesla solar, EV charger, metal roof, 2-car garage, and landscaped yard—close to top schools and parks.

Sold for $2,250,000

Listed at $2,895,000

Buyer Represented

Surrounded by rolling hills and panoramic views, this custom-built retreat offers over 3,600 sq ft of refined living — from soaring 19-ft ceilings and sunlit windows to a chef’s kitchen with Bertazzoni appliances and a stunning Quartz island. This is luxury living in the heart of wine country.

Sold for $3,300,000

Listed at $2,995,000

Seller Represented

Perched on a private ridge above Cascade Canyon, this enchanting 1930s cedar shingle residence offers a harmonious blend of historic charm and contemporary luxury. Bathed in all-day sunlight yet embraced by majestic redwoods, this hidden retreat provides both tranquility and convenience—just a picturesque stroll from downtown Mill Valley.

Sold for $4,000,000

Listed at $3,695,000

Seller Represented

This custom family home features 6 beds, 4.5 baths, including an in law unit. Beautifully remodeled with high-end finishes and a rare and coveted floor plan, with 4 beds upstairs. Located on a large half acre lot, offering amazing outdoor space and privacy.

Sold for $2,975,000

Buyer Represented

Perfectly located in the flats of one of Greenbrae's most sought-after streets. The home features an open-concept great room with vaulted ceilings, skylights & fireplace, opening to the kitchen and dining room and to the flat back patio beyond.

Sold for $1,300,000

Buyer Represented

Hidden from view in the desirable Sycamore Park neighborhood is the Park Terrace community, a charming enclave of 65 townhouses set among mature trees, paths, and green lawns. Sycamore Park has become a highly prized area of Mill Valley because of its level terrain and proximity to all that the downtown has to offer..

Leased

Charming Craftsman with Werner Canyon views! This spacious, sunny, and private home is within walking distance to the Mill Valley Tennis Club and downtown Mill Valley. Prime location in a quiet and private neighborhood just behind Boyle Park.

Looking for a primary residence, second home, or investment property outside of Marin? I am connected to some of the best agents in the country and would love to help you to find the right match and make an introduction for you!

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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.