Yes—but just a smidge! As we sit in the midst of a busy (and healthy) spring real estate market, the impact of mortgage rates always remains a question—even here in New York, where many of our deals are all cash.
As we carry on into spring 2025, the real estate market will continue to evolve, shaped by various economic forces. Understanding how mortgage rates work—and what drives them—is crucial for making informed decisions.
The average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage increased this week to 6.83%, up from last week’s reading of 6.62%. To put this in perspective, the average rate on a 30-year loan was 7.1% last year, with purchase application demand 13% lower than it is today—which we are clearly seeing in this spring season.
Mortgage rates are not set by the government (or pulled out of thin air(. They are influenced primarily by the bond market—especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. When that yield rises (as it has), mortgage rates tend to follow suit. When it drops—you guessed it—rates come down.
While the Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, it absolutely affects them. The Fed sets short-term interest rates for banks, which creates a domino effect through the financial system. So, when inflation is high or economic growth is strong, the Fed tightens the screws—and lenders respond in kind.
So why are rates higher right now? We’re still grappling with the lingering effects of supply chain disruptions (which drive up prices), as well as tariffs from the Trump administration on China, which are increasing import costs. Inflation is the ultimate villain here. When inflation rises, the value of money erodes. The Fed may raise rates to rein in inflation, and lenders demand higher returns to keep pace—which means higher mortgage rates.
Rate increases always seem to have a more pronounced impact across the U.S., but New York real estate continues (as it always does) to move and operate on its own plane. The rates, the economic uncertainty, and the seemingly constant swirl of negative news don’t appear to be slowing NYC down!
Our market has been very robust this quarter, and deals are still moving along. Sure, some buyers have taken a pause—but others are flocking to real estate as they see it as a safer bet. And don’t forget one of my favorite adages? You can’t live in your stock portfolio—but you can certainly live a fabulous life in that new dream home!
As always, I’m available to answer any and all of your questions about the real estate market.