The LATEST REAL ESTATE CONVERSATIONS

Episode 5: From Rates to Inventory: 2026 Housing Insights

with Logan Mohtashami, Author at HousingWire

In this conversation, I’m joined by Logan Mohtashami to discuss the outlook for the housing market in 2026, with a focus on mortgage rates, inventory growth, and the labor market. We explore the evolving dynamics between buyers and sellers, the impact of Federal Reserve policy, and the potential for price corrections ahead. Throughout the discussion, I emphasize the importance of tracking economic indicators and real-time data to better understand where the housing market is headed and how to navigate it effectively.

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This week in the real estate data

Remember the withdrawals of 2025? They’re back!

If you've been following the data, you know we tracked significantly more withdrawals last year than any recent year. When a house sits on the market without offers, sellers have two options: reduce the price or take it off the market and wait.

Many chose to wait. Now they're back, re-listed.

As of this week, there are nearly 80,000 homes on the market that tried to sell last year, were withdrawn, and are now re-listed. That's about 11% of the active single family inventory.

Here's the nuance most people miss: it's tempting to view this purely as a supply-side phenomenon. A tsunami of inventory coming this spring.

But our investigation suggests most of these withdrawals are owner occupiers. People who want to sell AND buy a new home. Move up buyers. Move down buyers. Delayed relocations.

Each withdrawal isn't just supply. Each withdrawal is two transactions waiting to happen.

If this assessment is correct, we should see it in the data. As relists climb this spring, weekly pending sales should climb in tandem. The growth scenario is when both numbers rise together.

This week's pending home sales came in at 56,000 single family homes. That's 8% more than a year ago. The recent average is running about 6% ahead of early 2025.

Inventory sits at 698,000 single family homes, 9.6% more than last year. Home prices by asking price per square foot are about 1.6% below last year.

The pattern emerging: sales are up slightly, inventory is sufficient, prices are flat to down a bit.

As those relists roll back onto the market, the key question is whether they're met with increasing sales. If we see relisting climb but pendings don't climb, the market is telling us something very different than I’m currently expecting.

We'll keep watching.

2026 Housing

Market Outlook

Last week, we released our first-ever 2026 Housing Market Forecast, outlining where home prices, sales, inventory, and affordability are headed next year.

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Mike Simonsen

Chief Economist

415.302.1573

mike.simonsen@compass.com

This email is for informational purposes only. You should seek their own professional advice before making decisions. Compass disclaims any liability for reliance on this content.