MARKET UPDATE

12.01.2024

The current NYC real estate market feels particularly influenced by emotions and external forces. Buyers and sellers are dealing with a mix of relief and hesitation.

Macro factors—the election, multiple international conflicts, the Fed’s head fakes and crossovers—cast a shadow over decision-making. The uncertainty has created a dynamic between buyers and sellers where transactions are slower, deals feel more scrutinized, and emotions run high.

On a micro level, hyper-local trends like neighborhood desirability, shifting buyer priorities, and constrained inventory are adding complexity to the market dynamics.

Despite these headwinds, there are signs of resilience. Contract activity has been stronger than expected as we wrap up fall, with some describing this as the beginning of a "market recovery.” While inventory remains tight—down 6% year-over-year compared to last October—new listings have increased by 50.9%, and liquidity (deal activity) is up 27.9%, signaling pent-up demand is starting to surface. As new inventory enters the market, buyers are responding, albeit with a more measured approach. 

This evolving landscape is pushing the market toward a more “neutral” state, though prime neighborhoods are still seeing bidding wars and competition. If interest rates drop as anticipated, we may see a shift toward even higher competition and less negotiability, further rewarding those who can adapt and act decisively.

It's delicate. These are big decisions and emotions run high. My job isn't to rush you into a decision, but to slow time down so you feel good, solid, affirmed—a step toward something that feels right, that feels like home.

I can tell you stories all day. (Get at me if you wanna talk shop). Instead, here's a snapshot of the "mixed" market by the numbers (as of 11.30.2024).

THE NUMBERS

Personal income rose 0.6%, doubling estimates (the fastest increase since March)

PCE increased 2.8% YOY up from 2.7% in September down from peak of 5.4% in February 2022

Pending Home Sales up 5.4%  YOY

Manhattan Supply is down 5.9% YOY 

Apartment communities with a Whole Foods on the ground floor achieve, on average, a rental rate premium of 6%" compared to similar communities nearby

Apollo's Torsten Slock housing price model predicts

a 10.9% increase in price in 2025

The size of new homes being built are 12% smaller than homes built in 2016

New U.S. multi-family construction is down 21.3%  year to date, helping keep rental prices elevated

New Construction For Sale inventory is 26% of the entire for sale inventory which is double the industry norm of 13%

Homes that are mortgage Free

Median age of all homebuyers in now 49 years old up from 31 in 1981

New Purchase Application is up 52% Year over Year.

Days on Market: 75 (All NYC Properties)

Amount of loans in Q3 which had applicants with a credit above 720

Brooklyn Supply is down 1% YOY (in units)

Brooklyn Median Home Price:

Approximately $980,000 (up ~4% YOY)

Manhattan Median Home Price:

Approximately $1,100,000 (down ~6.5% YOY)

The amount projected to be passed down from older Americans to millennial and Gen X heirs through 2045, and $16 trillion of which will be transferred within the next decade.

CURRENT RATES:

 7-year ARM

 15-year fixed mortgage

 30-year fixed mortgage