February Newsletter 2024

"The four most expensive words in the english language are: 
'This Time Is Different."

- John Templeton

SIBLING LOVE

We are officially into February.  Grace is closing in on 3 months in this world and Leo has LOVED being a big brother.  He reads to her and helps with entertaining when mom needs to sit down for a few minutes.  Here's to many more years together! 

Market Update

There's a lot to cover so let's jump right in! The Denver Metro Market Trends report just came out this past Saturday and we're seeing some shifting numbers.  

To begin with, this year started slower than most expected (meaning the first week or two), but that was probably due to Sub-Zero temperatures.  When the weather heated up, the market followed.  For the month of January 'Pending Sales' increased by 42.60%!!  Along with a 89.92% increase in New Listings!  Home prices provided an up-tick of 2.73% and Months of Inventory increased by just over 25%.

These numbers do reflect some seasonality.  However, there are other stories supporting the charge for new buyers and sellers entering the market.  While it appears the Fed will hold steady on interest rates for the time being, it also appears to be almost a certainty that rates will relax as we progress through 2024.  

One note I'd like to add to this is the general phycology of the way humans react to good OR bad news.  Often the truth is somewhere in between the horrible news or the great celebration.  For this particular case there's been speculation that the Fed could cut rates 6 times this year!

Before you get too excited, let me slow things down a bit.  While I believe we will see rate cuts, we likely won't see this as aggressively as so many had hoped for (see last months newsletter) which isn't a bad thing.  

The economics we're currently seeing are fairly strong; low unemployment (holding steady at 3.7%), a DYNAMITE jobs report (Expectation: 177,000, Actual: 353,000).  The 3.7% unemployment finished it's first stretch of 2 consecutive years below 4% since the 1960's. And, what about inflation?  It's not looking too bad:

As we know, inflation was a driving force that has led to interest rates forcing stagnation for the past 10-12 months.  However J. Powell recently stated, "They don't need to see better data, but rather just more 'good data'."  Annualized core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) over the last three and six months is now below the Fed's 2% target (see above). 

Lastly, I'll end by explaining why we SHOULDN'T  want to see extreme rate cuts.  Rate cuts are one of the most commonly used tools in stimulating consumers to borrow/spend during a recession.  As long as we see economics (stated above) continuing as strongly as they've been, it's unlikely we'll see rates come down quickly.  In the chart above, do you notice anything?  

To begin with, rates rose at record pace this time, probably a little too much (which is why they'll start to relax a bit). But more importantly, rate-cuts come quickly during a downturn (gray lines indicate recessions).  With strong economics, consumer spending, and falling inflation, we should NOT expect a drastic downward move by the Fed.  Sorry if you're waiting for sub 3% rates anytime soon :-(. 

Thank You to over 100 guests that joined us on February 3 for our 2024 Vendor Fair! 

This past Saturday was our 2024 Vendor Fair.  The weather did NOT cooperate, despite that we still had a huge turnout and I wanted to take a moment to thank all who joined us.  If you weren't able to make it, we will keep our 'Resource Page' live (click the photo above).  This base of vendors will serve as an excellent resource moving forward for our friends, family, clients, and others who need reputable and trusted professionals.   

Have a Wonderful and Blessed February!

Travis Carey

Broker Assoc.
M: 607.435.5113
travis.carey@compass.com

Compass is a licensed real estate broker. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.