Copy of March Newsletter 2024

"Be stubborn about your goals, and flexible about your methods." 
- Anonymous

Welcome to 'Spring' Month! 

Congratulations to Jordan and Lauren Cotto on their beautiful wedding, Amanda and I enjoyed celebrating with you!  Grace joins her grandfather for bible study every Saturday morning and Leo ushered in another stripe to his growing collection of stripes on his Jiu Jitsu belt! 

Market Update

Let's start this month by pointing out the obvious: The market has turned.  The Denver Market Trends report was just released today and, not surprisingly, has shown a 2.05% median increase in Closed Prices in February.  Add that to the 2.73% from January and we're seeing over a $26,000 median increase from December ($550,000). 

One common thought right now is: 'Volatility in our political landscape makes BIG purchases (like houses) more risky and thus potentially could bring prices down.'  So, let's take a look at some facts:  Election years are the second best years (from a market standpoint) out of the 4 years of a president, historically.  Add in our currently split government (Senate  = Democrat // House = Republican), and finally look at the previous few years (house values leveled out and even went down throughout the end of 2022 and into parts of 2023).  

Interesting fact, when we struggle in the SECOND year of a presidential term (when prices head south), we have NEVER experienced a negative fourth year (election year) since 1932!  Plus, the powers want you to feel good going to the voting polls!  

I could quote statistics all day and provide charts/graphs supporting why we've started this year so strongly.  But, to jump to the point; the +5.5% bump in home values in the past 60 days is NOT a surprise and I would anticipate we will continue seeing a strengthening market as we progress into spring/summer.  Additional growth, if/when the Fed starts  cutting rates (see last months newletter). 

OPPORTUNITY COST

Now, let's jump into a little thing called Opportunity Cost.  To put it another way, how much does it cost to NOT invest?  To begin with, let me add two quick points: 

1. Nobody can consistently time any major investments (house purchase/sale, stock investments, etc..), and... 

2. Sometimes it doesn't matter whether you WANT to buy/sell right now, it just might not be the right time.  Both are important factors to keep in mind. 

When determining Opportunity Cost, simply look at the value of houses compared to your rate of saving.  One quick thought (although I'm not encouraging anybody trying to 'time' the market perfectly), is determining what season we're in with the Denver market.  Take a look at the graph below, Denver tells us a pretty clear story of the highs and lows of the market each year.

It's tough to see in this graphic, but as we progress until July/August it's likely we'll see continued price appreciation.  Once July/August hits, the kids go back to school, and home sales/prices cool down a bit.  We hit our most recent bottom 2 months ago in December 2023 followed by a sharp turn upward.  

One X factor that's created a bit of an anomaly this year is that we have a pent-up buyer/seller pool who waited all throughout 2023 for interest rates to relax.  If that starts happening in Q3/Q4, I would anticipate we won't see much of a dip in 2024.  Lower interest rates simply mean you can offer more for a house with the same monthly payment... 

How Much Is My House Worth?

Considering the rollercoaster ride every homeowner has been on for the past 24-36 months, I've had a lot of questions lately regarding home values.  So, I've decided to set up a 'Home Value' account.  The way it works: You provide information about your home, the information will be analyzed.  You're then sent a monthly email with pretty accurate home value based on your criteria, price per sq. ft., comps in the neighborhood, etc...  If you're interested in having this emailed to you once each month, or if you're considering selling your home in the next 12 months; click on the picture above and send me over an email! 

Have a Wonderful and Blessed March!

Travis Carey

Broker Assoc.
M: 607.435.5113
travis.carey@compass.com

Compass is a licensed real estate broker. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.