ARE WE HEADED FOR A RECESSION?
|
Yes, eventually—sooner or later (perhaps much later). Very few, if any, can predict the exact timing of a recession, but anyone who says that one is eventually coming is correct, as they have happened historically and will continue to occur throughout economic cycles. A recession is, simply put, a significant and widespread downturn in economic activity that typically lasts longer than a few months. A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth indicate a recession. Recessions are caused by factors such as financial crises, natural disasters (including pandemics), and the bursting of economic bubbles. The U.S. has experienced 34 recessions since records began in 1857, each caused by varying factors and lasting different amounts of time. The longest-lasting recession lasted over five years—that was in 1873. Luckily, that is far from typical. The last five recessions lasted an average of 10.4 months, with the shortest being the COVID-related recession, which lasted only two months (the shortest in U.S. history). The effects of a recession, such as declining economic output and employment, can also become self-perpetuating. For example, unending news cycles about a looming recession can lead to lower consumer demand, prompting companies to lay off workers, which weakens consumer spending and demand. Similarly, a bear stock market can lead to people feeling less wealthy and spending less. Speaking of the stock market, the fact that so many gains have disappeared in the last two weeks (buffered by a small pop today) doesn’t necessarily mean we are in a recession. Although the stock market is negatively impacted by a recession in most cases, the cause here is the current administration’s policies, which are making investors nervous and prompting them to flee the market. The pop in the market today is uplifting, and I also just read the following from the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at JPMorgan, Michael Cembalest (for some reason, it gave me some comfort): “The stock market is unique – it cannot be indicted, arrested, or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened, or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity, or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed, or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections, and it cannot be seized, nationalized, or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation, and predictable rule of law.” So, what does this all mean for New York real estate? Historically, recessions (if we even have one) have had a mixed impact. During some downturns, home prices tumble due to decreased demand. But in places like New York City, where real estate is practically its own economy, the effects are more nuanced. New York real estate has a reputation for resilience. Even in severe economic downturns like the credit crisis of 2008, New York real estate bounced back quickly. Recessions can also present rare opportunities for those well-positioned to engage. All this negative talk aside, let me end with the punchline: This is the busiest spring market I have seen since pre-COVID. We had an open house on Riverside Drive on Sunday, and 27 people showed up. We went to best and highest bids by Wednesday, selling for significantly over the list price. It felt like I had been transported back to 2015! Many of our other listings are incredibly busy as well. The whispers of recession and the volatile stock market do not seem to be impacting NYC real estate!
|
Until next time, stay savvy, have a great weekend, and don’t believe every doomsday headline you read!
|
Have you ever thought about how much it costs the U. S. government to make a penny?
|
St. Patrick’s Day Parade in NYC guide to the route, dates and more
|
Make your plans for the 2025 St. Patrick's Day Parade in NYC with our map and guide.
The New York City Saint Patrick's Day Parade is coming up, and NYC's parade is a really big deal. It's the oldest and largest St. Patrick’s Day Parade in the world. The first NYC parade was held in 1762, and it's been a time-honored tradition of Irish pride ever since. From pipe and drum bands to dancers and performers in regalia, midtown Manhattan transforms into a big party with a sea of green revelers every year for this festive affair. More than 150,000 people march in the parade every year, with more than 2 million spectators cheering them on. Below, you'll find everything you need to know about 2025's parade, including when and where it'll be taking place. Make sure to check out our other suggestions for great St. Patrick’s Day events, too.
|
Brooklyn Public Library’s late-night party returns for 10th year
|
The Brooklyn Public Library’s beloved Night In The Library event is returning for its 10th year this weekend. The seven-hour-long event is part performance, part party and a chance for New Yorkers to spend time together in the library after hours. It begins at 7 p.m. Saturday and ends at 2 a.m. Sunday, and takes place at the library’s main branch, at 10 Grand Army Plz. Programming highlights include presentations by musician Laurie Anderson, reporter Hamilton Nolan, artist Molly Crabapple and dancers Baye & Asa. There will also be stargazing, led by the Amateur Astronomers Association, a Sacred Lama Dance, a saxophone performance, live clothing mending, tarot reading and more.
|
April’s Best NYC Events — Including Cherry Blossoms, Food Festivals, Broadway & More
|
Spring is officially here, and the April 2025 calendar is full! With the weather getting nicer, New Yorkers are itching to get out and about and celebrate…and we have some ideas! With both Easter and 4/20 approaching this month, there’s plenty enough ideas already, but we’ve expanded the palette to chat the best flower shows, Broadway debuts, art exhibits, and more. Bookmark this list for April and start checking off your bucket list! Check the link below for April's best NYC events:
|
336 West End Ave, Apt. 7CD
|
4 Beds | 3 Baths | Total Rooms: 7 | Co-op Upper West Side | Maintenance: $5,364 /m
|
Step into an extraordinary sun-drenched 4 bed 3 bath residence at 336 West End Avenue, perfectly positioned on the corner of 76th Street in one of the Upper West Side’s most sought-after locations. This stunning home has been artfully reimagined by Mark Stumer of Mojo Stumer Associates to create an expansive and seamless layout—ideal for sophisticated entertaining and effortless everyday living. A gracious entry foyer, adorned with striking herringbone floors, leads to an expansive living room featuring both a cozy sunken den and formal living room. Opposite the living room is a versatile dining room perfect for dinner parties or casual meals at home. Bathed in natural light from six oversized north-facing windows, the living and dining spaces offer picturesque views of charming, landmarked townhouses along 76th Street and West End Avenue. The beautifully appointed, windowed kitchen has been thoughtfully designed with sleek stainless steel appliances, rich wood cabinetry, and elegant granite countertops, with a large window overlooking the architecturally significant historic townhomes of the neighborhood. The primary suite is a serene retreat, featuring a dedicated home office, a massive walk-in closet, and a well-appointed en-suite bath. Adjacent to the suite is a flexible fourth bedroom that can serve as an office, den, or library—adapting to your lifestyle needs. Along the western side of the home, two additional oversized bedrooms offer en-suite bathrooms and custom-outfitted closets. The corner bedroom enjoys both northern and western exposures and a view of the Hudson River, filling the space with an abundance of natural light, while the adjacent bedroom offers tranquil western views and a custom designed closet. Located within a distinguished full-service cooperative, 336 West End Avenue provides residents with white-glove amenities, including a 24-hour doorman, a live-in resident manager, laundry facilities, storage, and bike rooms. The beautifully landscaped roof deck boasts breathtaking 360-degree views of the Hudson River, Riverside Park, and the iconic city skyline. Recently updated common hallways further elevate the building’s appeal. This pet-friendly co-op welcomes pied-à-terres and washer/dryers in unit with Board approval. Located in the heart of the Upper West Side, you are located within blocks of Fairway, Citarella, the Beacon Theatre, endless find dining, shopping and multiple transportation options. Experience the perfect blend of timeless elegance and modern convenience in this remarkable Upper West Side home.
|
|
© Compass 2025 ¦ All Rights Reserved by Compass ¦ Made in NYC
Compass is a licensed real estate broker. All material is intended for informational
purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to
errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without
notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements
(including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed.
No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity.
All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS.
Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect
actual property conditions.
marketingcenter--
|
|
|