"The 4 most dangerous and expensive words in investing are: 'This Time It's Different'"

- Sir John Templeton

This past month has been very busy and we started the chaos with a family trip to NY to see my family. I'd be curious to learn if you have any tips or tricks to flying 2,000 miles away with 3 kids (2 in diapers). That was quite the experience!

Market Update

I am going to make my Market Update quick this month as we're not seeing anything unexpected and the normal cycle of the market for the spring-season is in full swing.

To begin with, it's still not EASY to sell your home. We're far from the days of 1,500 homes on the market for sale and a huge buyer pool, however a competitively priced home goes quickly. The above graphic represents all of Denver (attached and detached homes), however if we consider only detached, single-family homes, the median days on market drops to only 13 days. For any attached home (condo's and townhomes), their median days are at 30!

With Pending Sales at almost a 31% increase, we will expect to see 'Closed Homes' much higher again next month.

Lastly, we've seen a level of uncertainty in the market with the escalation of the situation in Iran. As I'm sure you know, oil prices jumped and that created a layer of fear that inflation could rejoin us later this year. The Fed went from likely making 2 rate cuts this year, to lowering their optimism to only 1 rate cut. The market reacted accordingly. Further information on what to expect later in this newsletter.

How Does US Debt Affect Housing Prices?

Okay, follow me through this a little. When there seems to be a topic that keeps coming up with a lot of questions about 'What's going to happen?" I find it best to dig into history and see how similar situations played out in the past. Disclaimer: There are always differences, but rarely a wildly different outcome.

What's the chart about?

To begin with, when I'm addressing our national debt, I'm looking specifically at the size of our economy. Think of it like this, is a million-dollar house expensive? Well, maybe or maybe not, it depends on your ability to pay off the house. So, in this case, I'm comparing our Nominal GDP to our National Debt (Nominal GDP-to-Debt Ratio).

Nominal GDP is what we consider the total income earned from producing goods and services within our country at current market prices.

As of the end of 2025, we hit 117%! Sounds scary, but let's look back at history and see when we had a ratio that high before: In 1945 it hit 115%. Why? Massive deficit spending required to finance World War II. Two factors that helped reduce this number over the following 20 years were: 1. High Economic Production and 2. Inflation. In looking ahead 20 years from 1945 - 1965, I was curious to learn a few more stats:

What was the: Average Home Price in 1945 vs. 1965

In 1945, the average home price was approximately $4,200 with a median household income of: $2,600, a ratio of 1.6. However, in 1965 the average home price was approximately $20,000 with a median household income of $6,900, a ratio of 2.89%.

How Do Numbers Look Today?

In 2025, the median home price in the US was approximately $415,000, while median household income was approximately $84,000, a ratio of 4.9%!

In summary, my goal in this little research project was to see how far and how fast we may see home prices rise. Prices are dependent on a buyers' ability to purchase a home based on their current income. Although we saw numbers similar to today's ratio in the 1980's, home values have simply outpaced income over the past 6 years. This would lead me to believe that while we will likely still see home values increase, it's not likely going to look like the 1945-1965 range when we last saw a nominal GDP-to-debt ratio as high as it is today. I anticipate home prices to continue upward, but at a slower pace as incomes catch up.

Happy Hour Recap

On April 11th we held a little Happy Hour to introduce our newest office in Downtown Littleton. Thank you to those who were able to stop by, and if you weren't able to make it, we hope to do this again soon!

Active Listings

4455 Zephyr St., Wheat Ridge

Welcome to this amazing sanctuary. With character throughout, this home explodes with a new adventure around every corner. But, perhaps my favorite part is the indoor/outdoor 'spa-style' living. It's one of the most relaxing and inviting homes in Wheat Ridge!

166 Hummingbird Lane, Golden

Sitting on 1.3 acres on the western side of Golden, this home offers almost 3,200 sq ft, views for days, an attached 2-car garage, 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, and the occasional moose! A true mountain home.

Under Contract

4555 Gray Wolf Lane, Castle Rock

After 4 Open Houses, a neighborhood video, and a Parade of Homes, the perfect buyer stepped forward to get this home under contract. It's hard to believe when you look at the photos, that this isn't staged. The Crystal Valley subdivision of Castle Rock is an amazing neighborhood and will soon be joined by a 120,000 sq ft Costco! Congratulations to my clients on finding the right buyers!

1293 Marshall Ct.

Sitting in the heart of Lakewood, this beauty clearly has been well maintained as there's a flawless, vibrant red brick exterior, along with original hardwood floors and detached garage to match. Congratulations to my client who found this gem!

12377 W Mississippi Ave., Lakewood

2,400+ Sq Ft., 5 Bedroom // 3 Bathroom, completely updated with beautiful modern finishes, and A LOT more. But, perhaps my favorite part is that huge, heated, insulated, garage! Located in the heart of the Green Mountain neighborhood, this was an excellent find. Congratulations to my clients for finding the perfect home!

Closed

15815 W 2nd Ave., Golden

This house was special; it took blood, sweat, and tears (literally) to get it ready, but also to find that perfect buyer. A special congratulations to my seller's who closed one chapter in order to open another. Happy Fishing out in Tennessee!

752 Coal Bank Trail, Castle Rock

I had the opportunity to do something I'm not used to: Working with a new-build home. Toll Brother's built this magnificent home with over 4,300 sq ft. in southern Castle Rock. I'll give credit where it's due, thank you to Toll Brother's for creating a great experience and making sure this home was built correctly, any flaws were quickly addressed, and my clients felt at home when the day of closing came. Congratulations on your new home!

Coming Soon...

13537 Victory Lane, Carr

Views, views, views! Sitting on 40 acres, this incredible unique home piers off into Colorado's most beautiful sights. Coming soon will be a new deck, renovated interior, new front patio, an upgraded exercise room, kitchen, and a whole lot more. It's not hard to see why you won't find another home like this one. Stay tuned for our 'unveiling.'

School's out next month! Let the fun begin!

Travis Carey

Broker Assoc.

M: 607.435.5113

Travis.Carey@Compass.com

TravisCarey.com