Y Combinator HQ, Mountain View, CA: February 2026
You can literally smell spring in Palo Alto!
Not just fresh-cut grass, but those unexpected corners where the air turns floral and almost sweet. It still catches me off guard. After years in NYC, where you learned which blocks doubled as wind tunnels, I'll just say, I prefer Palo Alto's sensory experience!
And yet, while spring feels expansive, the housing market right now feels anything but.
The image above hangs inside Y Combinator (YC), the well-known “startup curve” mapping the emotional phases of building something new. While my real estate clients aren’t startups, March felt eerily similar: a sharp “Tech Crunch of Initiation,” followed quickly by the “Trough of Sorrow,” with plenty of “Wiggles of False Hope” in between.
That’s been the reality for buyers across Santa Clara County and San Mateo County.
Inventory is tighter than it was a year ago, particularly for the homes buyers actually want—move-in ready, well-located, and thoughtfully updated. By the numbers:
New listings are down ~10–15% year-over-year across the Peninsula
Months of inventory remains below 1.5 months in many submarkets (anything under 2 = highly competitive)
Well-priced homes are still seeing multiple offers, often pushing 5–10% over ask
In other words: demand didn’t disappear—supply did.
And that imbalance creates its own psychology. Buyers stretch, recalibrate, and re-enter. Sellers test pricing boundaries, sometimes rejecting strong offers in pursuit of something higher. The result? A market that doesn’t move in a straight line but in fits, starts, and emotional swings that look a lot like that YC curve.
The good news: just like in startups, those who stay disciplined through the Trough tend to be the ones who win on the other side.
- Lisa
On The Move is a curated mix of what’s inspiring me lately, what’s shifting in the market, and what might just shift your perspective or inspire you too.
