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Hi Friends, It's the most wonderful time of year in the city!! The lights, the cheer, the ule tide (I have no idea what that is). I'm so in love with NYC this time of year. Everyone seems a little softer, a little warmer, and truly cheery . Being an inter-faith family my house gets the best of two-holiday worlds Chanukah and Christmas - which is in line with how I grew up in NYC and Jewish Christmas traditions (more on that below). We have candles lit, lights up, a very very pretty tree and will have some really great family matching outfits to wear next weekend (don't worry photos will be up on Instagram, you are welcome)! This is the third branch of my favorite triumvirate of holidays after Halloween (its's a holiday in my mind) and Thanksgiving. I really hope you have a wonderful holiday season. To cap off the year in real estate, I've shared some 2023 predictions, info for navigating tipping season, and a wealth of ideas for enjoying the city as it shines brightest. I'm wishing you a joyous holiday season and an abundant new year! And as always never hesitate to reach out if you, your friends/family or colleagues have any real estate questions... Ed 917 592 5971 |
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MARKET ROUNDUP |
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What Does 2023 Have in Store for Real Estate? |
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Trying to guess the exact path of the New York City real estate market next year is nearly impossible, but we do have a lot of information that hints at the road ahead. The Fed issued a smaller, half-point rate hike in December. While Jerome Powell plans to continue increases through next year, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted lending rates will fall to 5.4% over the next 12 months. In fact, mortgage rates have been ticking down since late October. While we surely won't see the bargain rates of the past few years, we should avoid extreme highs too. As long as the economy inches toward recovery, that is. While prices may contract, the relative stability we've observed throughout the pandemic should continue. Or, as one blog put it, "NYC home prices will fall, but don't expect a collapse." If buyer demand falters, sellers will retreat, unwilling to trade their low mortgage rates. The balancing act will grant buyers more negotiating power but no fire sales. Yes anecdotally you may hear of some but this will not be the prevailing outcome... It almost never is in NYC. Rents, which skyrocketed over the summer, will be slow to cool, thanks to demand driven by robust local employment and sidelined potential buyers. Thankfully, developers should launch several rental construction projects shortly, propelled by a rush of permits issued as the most recent 421-a program expired. Office space abandoned in the new age of working from home also poses an opportunity to expand the rental market and bring down prices. Most importantly, as we look toward a possible recession in the New Year, New York homebuyers are far better prepared than during past downturns. The vast majority of local homeowners are sitting on positive equity and are generally in a stronger financial position than in 2008, for example. In fact, current mortgage delinquency in the state (2.7%) is lower than the historically low national rate of 2.8%. Buoyed by pandemic savings and warned by non-stop recession warnings, New Yorkers are ready to weather any storms 2023 might bring. |
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'Tis The Season for Tipping! |
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Holiday tipping is a uniquely New York City experience meant to recognize the men and women who keep our homes and lives manageable, from porters and dog walkers to doorman and postal carriers. These helpful, hardworking folks deserve to be rewarded, but how much is the right amount? Tipping is highly personal, based on your income and specific relationships, but the recent New York Times guide is a valuable primer for those unaccustomed to the holiday tipping phenomenon. According to the Times, residents in co-ops and condos are often expected to tip more than those in staffed rental buildings. Folks who require more assistance by receiving many packages, visitors and meal deliveries should also be a bit more generous than those who use their unit as a pied-à-terre. Brick Underground's Tipping Guide gets more granular, noting that supers tend to receive $150 to $300, while doormen are gifted $75 to $200. They recommend $20 to $50 tips for mail carriers and delivery drivers, a week's pay for your housekeeper and $25 to $50 for your regular babysitter. That said, according to their 2021 tipping poll, about 12% of owners and 28% of renters tipped nothing at all. |
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MY NEW YORK CITY – HOLIDAY OUTINGS EDITION |
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When it comes to getting out in the city during the holidays, visiting maximally decorated restaurants is high on my list. Let's face it, I'm a fan of over-the-top anything, and nothing is more over-the-top than Rolf's, a New York institution festooned with hundreds of thousands of lights, thousands of ornaments and miles of ribbon. The German food is pretty great too. Other stars of The Infatuation's list of beautifully decorated restaurants include Greenpoint's The Springs Ho Ho Holiday Lounge, a wonderland of festive decorations and fantastic holiday-themed cocktails. Lillie's Victorian outposts in Union Square and Times Square are known for the maximal style all year round, and over the holidays, they really kick it up a notch. Meanwhile, in the East Village, Miracle — an international network of holiday pop-up bars — is serving up Bad Santa vibes at Miracle on 9th Street with exceptional Christmas and Hanukkah decorations and a menu of cheery cocktails to match. If festivals and holiday markets are more your style, Travel Off Path has got you covered with excursions all over the city. Growing up Jewish in NYC, we ate Chinese food every year on Christmas Day. Ask any Jew from NYC —we all did it! Add in a trip to the movies, and you have the classic "Jewish Christmas" of course, these days, there are far more options, as seen in this list of Eater-recommended Christmas restaurants, but I will still be eating Chinese food. Some traditions are too good to shake! |
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