Today In Real Estate

I hope you had a wonderful summer and are enjoying the start of fall. September always brings a noticeable shift in New York, and after an unusually quiet August, the real estate market is starting to feel busier too.

New listings picked up after Labor Day, buyers are back out looking, and early open house traffic has been encouraging. At the same time, inventory remains limited in many parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn, and rising mortgage rates add another layer of uncertainty as we head into the fall market.

In this edition, I’m looking back at what happened over the summer, what we’re seeing as the fall market gets underway, where mortgage rates may be headed, and a few other real estate trends and stories I’m watching.

As always, if you’d like to discuss what any of this means for your own plans, I’m always happy to chat.

Manhattan Report

The fall market is finally ramping up in Manhattan, with almost 24% more new listings hitting the market in the week following Labor Day than during the same week last year. The increase follows a quieter-than-usual July and August, when new listings were down significantly compared to last summer. Contracts remained fairly steady in July, reflecting deals negotiated earlier in the season, but August activity dropped well below 2025 levels. A shortage of new development inventory was a major factor, with double-digit declines in both new listings and contracts in that segment over the summer. Closed-sale prices, which generally reflect deals negotiated months prior, remained relatively stable.

There are already signs that buyers are re-engaging as fall inventory enters the market. The first weekend after Labor Day brought the strongest Manhattan open-house traffic since late April, as well as higher traffic than the comparable September weekend last year. It is only one early data point, but after an unusually quiet end to the summer, it is an encouraging start. Still, with mortgage rates at their highest level in 15 months and the Fed raising rates again this week, it remains to be seen how much this will temper buyer activity.

Brooklyn Report

Brooklyn has seen a more muted start to the fall market than Manhattan. New listings in the first week after Labor Day were essentially unchanged from the same week last year, following a particularly quiet August when inventory fell nearly 10% and contract activity dropped sharply. As in Manhattan, the limited new development pipeline was a major factor, with new development listings down 30% and contracts down 50% from last August.

Despite the slower activity, prices held up well over the summer. Overall closed-sale prices were modestly higher than last year, while the median price for resales rose 11% this August compared to last year.

Buyer activity also picked up sharply after Labor Day, with Brooklyn open house traffic reaching more than twice the level of any weekend since early July. The question for the fall is whether enough new inventory will come on to meet buyer demand, particularly as higher mortgage rates continue to put pressure on more rate-sensitive buyers.

Navigating NYC:

New Development

Buying new development in NYC is a different beast. Negotiations often involve much more than price, with closing costs, concessions, upgrades, storage, timing, and other deal terms sometimes in play.

The process itself can also be less predictable than a resale. Construction milestones and approvals can affect timing, buyers may be asked to cover costs that are typically paid by sellers in resale transactions, and the final walkthrough takes on added importance because the apartment is expected to be delivered in accordance with the offering materials and in move-in-ready condition.

The real value is understanding the context: what is customary, what may actually be negotiable, how a particular developer or building tends to operate, and how the new-development premium compares with resale alternatives.

Learn more about purchasing new development in NYC on my website.

Mortgage Rate Recap

Mortgage rates reached their highest level in 15 months ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, as persistent inflation made a rate hike increasingly likely and lenders priced the expected move into mortgage rates in advance. The Fed ultimately raised its benchmark rate by 0.25%, and another increase later this year is now more likely than not. Whether mortgage rates continue to climb from here will depend largely on inflation and Treasury yields.

RATE DATA BASED ON BASED ON CITIBANK'S 30-YEAR FIXED-RATE FOR NON-CONFORMING LOANS, COURTESY OF ZACK TOLMIE, SR. LOAN OFFICER.

Real Estate News

NYC’s real estate market is showing an unusual disconnect: transaction volume remains low and mortgage rates remain elevated, yet prices continue to rise.

Manhattan and Brooklyn resale prices per square foot are up 8.3% and 8.6% this year, respectively, driven largely by limited inventory and fewer sellers.

With new supply difficult to replace and demand remaining strong, the imbalance continues to put upward pressure on prices.

(FORBES)

Manhattan’s luxury rental market is reaching new highs, with the city’s most exclusive apartments now commanding rents of $100,000 a month or more. Strong demand from wealthy renters, limited inventory, and high-end buyers choosing to rent rather than purchase are pushing prices higher, underscoring the continued strength of New York’s luxury rental market.

(CNBC)

Manhattan rents took a pause in August after reaching a record high in July, with the median rent falling by $100 month over month. While the pullback offers some relief for renters, prices remain elevated and the broader rental market continues to be shaped by strong demand and limited inventory. Brooklyn rents also eased slightly, but remain near record levels

(THEREALDEAL)

Brooklyn’s luxury market remained slow toward the end of summer, with just seven contracts signed for homes asking $2 million or more. While the pace of deals remains limited, demand continues for well-positioned luxury properties.

(THEREALDEAL)

StreetEasy no longer shows the full NYC market. Thousands of listings are now being marketed through Compass, Corcoran and other brokerage websites, and Compass and Corcoran’s combined inventory now exceeds what is available on StreetEasy.

(COMPASS).

Curated Collection

With fall approaching, here is a curated collection of listings with beautiful park views - perfect for taking in the changing season from home.

Listings & Recent Sales

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