October 2022 Newsletter

October brings us deep into the fall season—a time full of festive celebrations, autumnal spices, and spooky decor. 

Read on for real estate news, seasonal ideas, and discover lifestyle tips to enjoy what October offers!

San Diego Real Estate

By now, most have heard that 30-year fixed mortgage rates have risen dramatically over the past 6 months, topping 7% on September 27 and ending the week ~6.8%. It’s also being reported around the nation that the real estate market has “shifted,” with sellers no longer being 100% in control. But what we don’t see in the headlines is that the rise in rates is muting the supply of homes available for sale, thus sustaining a slight seller’s market and amplifying the housing shortage. So, let’s look at the full impact of rising rates and what we’re doing to help our clients navigate the ever-changing real estate market in San Diego County.

Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Inventory Supply
As interest rates began rising in April, so did the record-low inventory of available homes for sale. However, unusual to our normal cycle in San Diego, inventory plateaued in July and August as a new trend called “hunkering down” started to emerge. 
According to Black Knight, 72% of all homeowners with mortgages have locked-in rates at 4% or lower. If these homeowners aren’t in love with their homes, you can be assured they are in love with their ultra-low monthly payments. Homeowners who aren’t compelled to move due to a major life event are “hunkering down” and making do with their existing homes as they enjoy their payment. If interest rates hold at the current rate or rise slightly, we expect the inventory to remain leveled off throughout the remainder of the year at levels still far below pre-pandemic norms.

Impact of Rising Rates on Demand
If a buyer has a specific not-to-exceed monthly payment, the house they can afford decreases as rates increase, as indicated in the chart below. A buyer who could afford a $1M home at the beginning of the year will now be shopping in the $700,000 range to remain at the same desired monthly payment.

If interest rates remain at current levels or rise even higher, we expect demand to continue to decrease throughout the remainder of 2022.

Impact on Affordability
Housing is considered affordable when it costs no more than 30% of a household's gross annual income. The combination of the rapid increase in interest rates and home prices equated to housing unaffordability reaching record levels in 2022. The chart below compares 2022 to 2000, when rates were higher than today, but home prices and income levels were far lower:

Helping our clients find creative financing programs to allow them to comfortably and safely reach their housing goals has been our mission since rates began to rise in March. 

Impact on Home Prices
Due to housing affordability, there has been downward pressure on home prices throughout the county. As a result, the number of price reductions on active listings is on the rise. Over the past two months, the median home price has declined by 2.9%. There is a lot of noise in the media about home prices plummeting, however, low inventory is what is holding home prices from decreasing at a rapid pace. And as we noted above, we don’t see that changing.

How we guide our clients in this market
Buyers: If 30-year fixed rates create an objection to purchasing the perfect home, we have identified lenders with Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) loans to capitalize on a lower monthly payment. Some of these rates are as low as 4.5% for a 3/1 ARM or 5.25% for a 5/1 ARM which has a significant impact on the monthly payment. Also “3-2-1 buydowns” to lower the interest rate for the first three years of a mortgage have emerged.

Sellers: Pricing and preparing a property to be “market ready” is more important than ever. Considering sales from the first half of 2022 when rates were at 3% is not relevant to today’s market. Focusing on pending sales and closed sales from the last 30 days, and in some cases, the 4th quarter 2021 will lead to more accurate pricing. Offering to pay down a buyer’s interest rate is a less expensive option than most price reductions would be and can help a buyer overcome the affordability hurdle.

As always, we take a personalized, solutions-based approach to help our clients reach their goals. Contact us at noel@noelwheeler.com or call 619-890-2877 to discuss your specific situation and let us determine together the best path forward.

Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing

For Sale

Call me to schedule a private showing

North Park

3994 Iowa Street

3 BD   3BA   2104SF   $1,349,999

Turnkey two-story home sited on a corner lot in the center of ultra-trendy North Park, located minutes to downtown San Diego and Coronado. This home beautifully blends 1930’s charm with contemporary features, including updated kitchen and baths. Gorgeous living room with fireplace surrounded by built ins, two dining areas, two ensuite bedrooms, ground floor bed/bath, 2 car garage.

Southwest Escondido

2391 Live Oak Road

4 BD   3BA   2271SF   $1,149,999

Escape to peaceful living in the heart of Southwest Escondido in San Diego County, where you will enjoy mountain views, owned solar, space between neighbors, and no HOA or Mello Roos -  all within minutes of freeways, shopping, dining, universities and local attractions. Thoughtfully designed floorplan, modern upgrades throughout, ground floor bedroom/bathroom, and an expansive fully landscaped backyard with meandering paths leads to private hideaways, raised garden beds, and numerous fruit trees.

Recent Activity

Congratulations to our clients reaching their real estate goals over the past two months! We are honored to be your advocates who you trust now and in the future! 

Pending | Santee

8764 Glen Vista Way

4 BD   3BA   1711SF   $765,000

Representing Seller

Sold | north Park

4012-4014 Ohio Street

4 BD   3BA   1349 SF   $1,495,000

Represented Seller

SOLD | Encinitas

1375 Ravean Court

5 BD   5BA   5001SF   $3,390,000

Represented Buyer

sold | Santee

305 Cobblestone Place

3 BD   3BA   1617SF   $769,900

Represented Buyer

Local Happenings

La Jolla Art & Wine Festival

The La Jolla Art & Wine Festival will return to downtown La Jolla on Saturday, October 8, and Sunday, October 9.  You can expect prestigious art, regional and international wines, craft beer and spirits, and family-friendly fun!

Trick-or-Treat on India Street

On Friday, October 28th from 5:30pm to 7:30pm, ghouls and goblins of all ages are encouraged to dress up in their best costumes and enjoy an evening of authentic trick-or-treating with their families. Click here to learn more.

Lifestyle Tips & Tricks

What You Should Be Planting in the Fall

This may be a little known fact, but fall is the key planting time for a beautiful garden. It's also the key time to give your plants one last manicure before winter sets in. Now that summer's heat is cooling off, it's time for you to switch out your summer annuals for fall appropriate annuals and plant spring bulbs before the first frost.

Courtesy of Southern Living

25 Easy Pumpkin Carving Ideas

Carve your own funny, scary, or beautiful pumpkin carvings this Halloween. Your whole family will find plenty to love about these easy pumpkin carving ideas—from a classic smile to a flame.

Courtesy of Better Homes & Gardens

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.